DISQUS

Madhav Tripathi · 5 months ago

Really I am impressed with this post, and you are catching very true points about Google what it was and now what it is, and many of peoples are guessing the same thing about Google, one of my post is is pointing the same thing http://techshali.com/googleonlinemicrosoftoffline/

Louis Gray · 5 months ago

I know comparing Google to Microsoft isn't all that Earth-shattering. But I have just been thinking about how Microsoft started from one end, and Google another, and now they've got significant overlap. Besides, even if Google were to ever be passed as a search engine, the rest of their experience is so good, it would be tough to switch.

Kevin Fox · 5 months ago

"In contrast, Google started with its search engine and has worked the other direction – adding a formidable e-mail option in Gmail, an office suite with Google Docs, a Web browser with Chrome, a portal with iGoogle, and many utilities designed to make us come to Google as our information engine – from Google Maps and Earth to Google Reader." Don't forget that they also built a mobile OS, completing the reverse path.

Louis Gray · 5 months ago

Kevin, that is true. I referenced my previous discussions on Android vs. iPhone, rather than do it again. Excerpt: "And as we discussed previously, late last year, in the debate on mobile phones and Web browsers, where I argued that the new tactics will be “all about the hooks”, there’s no question that Apple’s iPhone, combined with Google’s Android platform, will extend the share of Google’s engine even further on the mobile Web."

armchairtheorist · 5 months ago

I can certainly see the scenario you are describing play out in front of our eyes.

However, one aspect to consider is that no matter how sticky Google's search and supporting services are, I would argue that Google's position is still a bit more precarious than Microsoft's, just because in my opinion the barrier for someone to switch away from an online service like Google is a whole lot lower than switching from a desktop OS and software.

Anyway, I personally think we are still very far away from a world where everything we do is entirely online and we don't need a desktop OS or desktop software anymore. Therefore, what's likely going to happen is that we will reach some kind of equilibrium point where most things that can be built and delivered as an online service will be online, with the remaining use-cases continued to be fulfilled via desktop software. Google may or may not control the online service space (remember, they have a whole heck of a lot more competitors), and Microsoft will continue to dominate the desktop space.

At the end of the day, consumer demand for computing services will continue to increase over the years, and everyone will still have a share of the pie.

Zachary Adam Cohen · 5 months ago

Another great post Louis. I think your exactly right that there is no longer a "google killer." It's influence and power has spread too far into the fabric of so many things, social networking, shopping, apps, the cloud, that even if google is no longer primarily a search engine, or was trumped by another one, there would be plenty left over that was still a major presence.