DISQUS

Charlie Anzman · 10 months ago

It had to happen sooner or later. I so disagree with you on this Louis. Where's that Disqus password ... comin' up! (and knocking on your door with some great investment options :)

Greggish · 10 months ago

or maybe it's worth a lot less

Louis Gray · 10 months ago

Wait for the follow-on counterpoint, Charlie and Greg.

AJ Kohn · 10 months ago

I politely, but vigorously, disagree. Yahoo, Google and NYT ... they all make money. What makes anyone think that Twitter can find a profit model where Facebook can't. The Web 1.0 environment is littered with companies that seemingly transformed our experience. Remember Webvan, or Kozmo (oh how I miss Kozmo), or Geocities or ... well, you get my point.

Allen Stern · 10 months ago

louis - did you forget to take your meds? :)

Greggish · 10 months ago

I think we need to figure out just what Twitter is. Is the important thing about Twitter the the new paradigm of messaging based on "follows"? I still think the 140 character thing is an unimportant incidental. Or is Twitter a walled garden social network that can force users to come to it? I believe that Twitter is the former, and right now Twitter is the website people go to for that experience. Soon the "follow" will be a bolt-on feature to many web communities, and Twitter will be nothing special.

Charlie Anzman · 10 months ago

Allen (heh :). Louis - Reply is on your blog sir (and UDP is apparently awesome ....already in my FF stream!!)

Carter Rabasa · 10 months ago

I agree. I really think Twitter is laying the groundwork for something special, locking-in both users and developers in the process. Not in an overtly nefarious way, just by offering a compelling value proposition to everyone involved.

AJ Kohn · 10 months ago

*chuckle* okay ... point, counter point. Got it. It's clear which side I stand on ;)

ChangeForge | Ken Stewart · 10 months ago

Louis, good write-up... While Twitter is indeed hitting the mainstream, and is probably the best positioned to capitalize on its ballooning success of any similar companies, making it into the enterprise is a long shot...

Because of the reasons you listed, I just don't see Twitter being taken seriously by enterprise companies, especially in lieu of real-time, corporate IM solutions.

For the small start-up, or marketing-savvy company, participating in Twitter is a must for public relations. But having every living, breathing soul inside a company participating in a service such as Twitter? Sorry.

Twitter will continue to exist at the fringe of corporate networks, deployed to smartphones and desktops where workers can sneak a little "juice". While I will not argue that there are most certainly advantages to using the service, I can think of just one that will scare IT and compliance nazi's alike into staying clean:

James Andrews (http://www.davidhenderson.com/2009/01/21/key-on...)

As they say (in Transformers I think), "You have got to get control of that brain-mouth thing..."

Warmest Regards
Ken Stewart

charlieanzman · 10 months ago

Louis - You probably remember when I was one of the only people saying "Twitter still has legs" last year when just about every one else had them 'dead' due to downtime? I agree with the simplicity comment (and the CNN spin) but it would be A LOT cheaper to duplicate the service with a pre-agreed upon spin from numerous multi-media players. Hulu (granted, a different type of service) is being syndicated all over the place. These guys are now 'playing together'. 250 million for Twitter (in these times) is just out of wack (for me)....

Eric · 10 months ago

I think its great you posted both - great way to generate discussion.

Jesse Stay · 10 months ago

you are both right

Chris Bucchere · 10 months ago

@AJ -- Long live Kozmo! In fact, I could really use a DVD and a pint of Ben & Jerry's right now....

@Louis Twitter is also a great competitive intelligence (CI) tool -- I <3 watching what my competitors are saying about their products to their prospects and customers. I also like hearing (and responding to) what people are saying about me, my company and my products. Summize (now search.twitter.com) + RSS + Google reader is a darn good CI toolset -- and it's free. If Twitter offered its own set of CI tools and they worked better that what I've cobbled together, then I might consider paying for that.

Hutch Carpenter · 10 months ago

Sticking with my prediction of $1 billion: http://bit.ly/cVcw

Paul Spence · 10 months ago

I think 2009 will be Twitter's year. Subscriber micro-messaging has come of age and Twitter has the jump on everyone else. We are only beginning to see the possible applications for it. As for valuations, their user growth trajectory speaks for itself.

Cole Jolley · 10 months ago

Reading through the various posts, I didn't see any real analysis on P2E or comparative size. Mostly anecdotal feelings of value. What is each active user worth? Problematically, not a lot of quantification. While it's nice to look back at the golden era of VC windfalls, I think there's a new economic reality and few will be willing to pony up like this. Not in cash anyways. Think south of 200. For enterprise, Twitter needs reliability before it can be a serious business service. Beyond lifestreaming.

Michael Fidler · 10 months ago

Very clever Louis. I not surprised at all. I knew there was something wrong with that other post. You just weren't very convincing. You did make some great arguments though! Is the ff app you spoke of in the other post real?

GrowMap · 10 months ago

Am I the only one who sees the elephant in the room when it comes to monetizing any Social Networking site? StumbleUpon almost stumbled upon it but eliminated it when they got bought out. The big money is in advertising. The best advertising CONVERTS. The REASON it converts is that it is RELEVANT to those who see it.

SOLUTION: Use data mining to pull existing activity into pages targeted to specific niches. Provide an easy way for your users to get to that niche information. Offer advertisers ads that appear ONLY on the specific pages most related to what they want to advertise.

Users get to find out about products and services related to their favorite interests. Advertisers get to reach those who are most likely to buy from them. Social Networking services become as profitable as Google AdWords.