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Similarly, the Jaiku fanboys will be quick to refute the obvious conclusion that identi.ca will overtake Jaiku early in 2009.
Does it matter ? Probably not. To each their own.
When I started to write this post, I had assumed that the traffic for all of them would be the same. I was shocked to see the Plurk traffic. However, Plurk does have a different pull than something like Identi.ca because it is not just another Twitter clone.
I think Twitter will be like MySpace in the early years, a lot of early adopters grabbing on, with others slowly trickling in. There will be other competitors, like Jaiku and Identica and Plurk, but none will offer any significant competition. Ultimately, a competitor will come along, much like Facebook, and be a game changer.
Twitter is somewhat limited in what they can do, because its simplicity is a big part of why people love it, it wouldn't take very many of the wrong kind of features and people will be turned off.
Ultimately, Twitter needs a business model, and fast. They won't be on top forever, so they need some positive cash flow, and some reserves on hand to weather any competition that appears. MySpace has been retooling under the radar. Twitter could have the opportunity to do the same thing, a subtle remake of themselves after a game changer comes along.
There's always room for competition, and slowly but surely, it will be here. I think the real question is, can Twitter maintain its user base when the competition gets here?
That is absolutely correct, there is always room for a better form of communication especially if it is significantly better. Regarding FriendFeed, it is possible that something better comes along, but the management of the information must improve. The flood of information is too hard for many to handle, so there is a significant hurdle to "better than FriendFeed".
The microblogging world today is similar to if people on Yahoo could only mail each other but not anyone using Google mail.
We just need Twitter, etc to embrace it.
I see the future as being niche microblogging communities around topics and popular blogs / sites.
Until then I think the defacto will be Twitter - if only because that's where everyone has already established themselves. At this point, it's clearly not about technology - it's about community. Of all the sites listed I only see Facebook as trouble for Twitter. Even then that trouble will only be to curb the growth of Twitter by stealing potential users. The switching costs are just too high for a Twitter user to switch.
Twitter is quite simply the newest bestest coolest catchiest thing to hit the net since Google went mainstream.
I mean, sorry Facebook, prepare to make way for web 3.0 ;)
The question is not only about the business model but also about the functional strategy of a microblogging tool. Is it about plain communication or about knowledge sharing? Micromessaging vs. Microsharing? From a company's point of view sharing, filtering and find-what-you-want is important. Check out http://www.communote.com to see a microblogging tool with focus on these business features.
http://trends.google.com/websites?q=friendfeed....
I'm surprise that some of you are shocked by the number. But then again, it's hard to realize what's going on outside the valley when you are embedded deeply into this hyper-sensational echo chamber world of silicon valley web 2.0 centric crowd. I think Plurk and Brightkite still have a lot to do if they want to go far but boy do I want to see the faces of those so-called social media specialists that had been calling them dead after they've just launched 6 months ago.