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I also predicted that Apple would sink it's teeth into the enterprise (http://www.changeforge.com/2008/03/14/can-apple...) IF
"apple continues on its iPhone Roadmap, continues to develop disruptive technologies (as they have proven they can do), and can keep giving customers what they need and want"
Apple can't afford to take on Microsoft for the enterprise directly, but they can sink their teeth into a giant portion of the mobile phone market - at least here (we'll see about globally with Nokia).
So Apple is taking on 2 very big competitors for then enterprise space - and they can do it if they keep their roadmap clean and crisp - focused on giving administrators the ability to centrally manage and control the apps. Both Microsoft and BlackBerry are strong in this, but Apple is weak in this - both on their mainstay desktop/notebook OS and in their mobile offering.
However, they have the superior user interface that is revolutionizing the world. They have to keep pushing though - because with enough time others will catch up. The Storm is the first serious foray into this, but it will take another 2 generations for RIM to get close to catching up.
To your point on the mobile market evolving into a more lucrative space, I'm not so sure on this. Every indication I have points in the other direction. Apple seized one of the first major carrier agreements to share in profit from wireless plans - so look for major manufacturers in this space to play off of that. Meanwhile, carriers (at least in the US) are being subjected to consumer pricing pressures and increased governmental regulations. Wireless was at one time profitable - but look for it to go the way of the Long Distance carriers...
That's what I think... but with Steve Jobs fading to the background, Apple is now in serious jeopardy of a compromised vision. They won't get a third chance to bring him back.
As for marketshare, we can do is speculate and as a mobile junkie, I love these exchanges. http://www.louisgray.com/live/2008/10/microsoft... and http://www.louisgray.com/live/2008/12/zune-phon.... So now that I know your thoughts about the market space, how and why should market shares concern us (consumers), is my new question.
The market shares, per se, don't necessarily impact the consumer directly - but what does is 1) competition and innovation drives adoption for the broader market, 2) interoperable services and apps reduces the consumer's care about platform, and 3) mass production and adoption drives pricing down.
Apple has finally come out with an interface that even my 5 year old can figure out. That is saying something.
As we seek to make the UI more appealing and easier technology in the background becomes much more complex while customer-facing technology becomes simpler and simpler. Look at our cars.
All of this talk about "the cloud" and "cloud computing" simply illustrates a trend where technology may actually one day catch-up to usability. For the longest of times, technology has been a barrier to itself. The logic or horsepower never enough, the access never fast enough, the information not accessible enough.
Well - enough!
We are finally beginning to see truly accessible information - not just yet - but we see a glimpse.
So in a nutshell, market shares we should not care about directly, but we should be very interested in how these play out because the ripples of these stones can indeed touch us on far away shores...